We may already know the final candidates for president in 2028. This is not normal.

Typically, when a president is serving their second term, and can’t run again, and we are 34 months away from the next presidential election, it’s hard to know who will replace them. Usually, there is a long line of candidates, from both parties, who have been waiting for years, sometimes decades, to run.  The last time this happened was 2016, when Obama was termed out. We ended up with six strong D candidates and 17 strong R candidates. It was possible to see that the eventual D nominee could be Hillary Clinton. But it certainly wasn’t possible to see that the eventual R nominee would be Donald Trump. 

Does this matter to the sector? Very much. The next administration will have an enormous impact on everything we do for the end of this decade and well into the 2030s. Having an early indication of who that leader may be is important and useful.

‘Not Normal’ Politics

An interesting set of events has created a high probability of a JD Vance v. Gavin Newsom race. On the Republican side, Trump has all but endorsed JD Vance. He hasn’t officially done so, but he has said that Vance is the “most likely” heir apparent to the MAGA movement. He has also said that Marco Rubio is also “great” and that the combo of the two would be unstoppable.  This has led to rampant DC belief that the ticket is Vance-Rubio and probably in that order.

On the D side, Newsom has been the most active of the potentials. He has courted the left by going directly after Gov. Greg Abbott in Texas, and Gov. Ron DeSantis in Florida. He bought print ads and billboards in both states, which attacked the R governors, and gun/choice policies. Not normal. Very creative.  The left loved it. More recently he has been courting moderate Ds by opposing the California wealth tax, and criticizing the party for going too far left on some social issues.

On top of that, Newsom is smart, very good on the stump, and really wants to be president. You add all that up and it feels like a Vance v. Newsom race.

Online Markets Set the Scene

The betting markets agree. These online prediction clearinghouses have proven to be a more accurate predictor of political events than traditional polling. When people put up real money and use AI tools, the result has made these markets quite accurate. For example, Polymarket (the largest) accurately picked the Trump election in 2024 and had all the swing states right. No small feat.

Here is what the markets are saying about 2028. The number next to the candidate’s name is the number of cents that you would have to put up to win a dollar if you are right. For example, the 53 next to Vance means that if you put up 53 cents and he is the nominee, you win $1. (BTW, there has already been $3.6 million bet on him to be the nominee on the Polymarket site. This is real $ and people make large bets.)

Republican Nominee

JD Vance                  53
Marco Rubio          15
Donald Trump          4
Ron DeSantis           3

Democratic Nominee

Gavin Newsom     35
AOC                              9
Josh Shapiro             7
Pete Buttigieg          5
Kamala Harris        4
Andy Beshear         4
Jon Ossoff               4

Again, this is not normal. Typically, there would be a much longer list of credible candidates. While there will likely be twists and turns between now and November of 2028, I don’t remember a cycle where there has been this much clarity, this far out. It would take a major event to keep the R nominee from being either Vance or Rubio. And, while I’m not as confident in a Newsom prediction, it feels like it’s his race to lose.