In a report released on Feb. 17, researchers from the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC) examined assisted living penetration rates across the country, finding wide variations that could not be explained by geography and economic factors alone.

NIC said to get a better gauge of what really drove the penetration variances, researchers conducted deeper analysis in four contrasting markets: Minneapolis (10.1 percent penetration rate) and Portland, Ore. (7.5 percent), compared with Miami (2.4% percent) and Las Vegas (1.9 percent).

NIC defined assisted living occupied penetration rate—also known as capture rate—as the share of households aged 75 and older residing in assisted living properties within a given market.

The results of the deeper dive showed higher adoption occurs when multiple conditions align, including but not limited to economic foundations, consumer awareness, workforce capacity, and supportive public policy.

“We found that penetration is influenced not just by personal finances or functional care needs, but by how well a market supports awareness, confidence, planning, and workforce stability early enough for families to choose assisted living proactively,” Omar Zahraoui, NIC’s senior principal, said.

To bolster penetration rates, NIC identified six key factors that matter most:

1. Market potential does not equal high penetration rates: Markets with higher incomes, wealth, and marriage rates—and lower poverty—tend to have higher assisted living use, but that pattern doesn’t hold everywhere. 

2. Higher care needs do not automatically translate to higher assisted living penetration: Markets with lower reported limitations in activities of daily living often have higher assisted living penetration, suggesting that many residents move in proactively—not only after care needs intensify.

3. Culture, awareness, and perception matter: Cultural attitudes, familiarity with assisted living, and perceptions of the product strongly influence adoption, sometimes outweighing financial or demographic capacity.

4. Affordability is both a misperception and a reality: In many markets, there are options within reach of median-income older adults, but lack of awareness and delayed planning keep people from moving in. 

5. Workforce availability is a key driver: Markets with a strong caregiver pipeline are more likely to expand and serve more residents, while those that cannot do so may fall behind—even when demand from older adults is high. 

6. Local policy shapes access, affordability, and development: State and local policies can either enable or limit access, affordability, and modernization of assisted living.

Read the report at https://tinyurl.com/9rcusb5j. 

Questions or comments? Contact Patrick Connole at pconnole@parkplacelive.com.