Only 111 days to go before midterms and a fresh election forecast from The Hill newspaper’s modeling tool sees a Democrat takeover of the House of Representatives and a tie ball game in the Senate, with the Republicans keeping control with the vice-presidential tiebreaker in place.

The elections in November are of course of utmost interest to the skilled nursing sector, potentially setting up a slowdown of Trump Administration healthcare policies and a large number of investigations into various administration policies if the Democrats control at least one chamber of Congress.

The staffing mandate also hangs over any political discussion with Democrats seemingly set on reviving it in some form even if the chances of doing so would be limited without control of the White House (see the Park Place exclusive on this subject from a May 28 interview with former top CMS official Jonathan Blum here.)

Back to the forecast, The Hill said its Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) forecasts Democrats clinching a 227-208 advantage in the House, while Republicans narrowly retain power with Vice President Vance as the tiebreaker vote in a 50-50 Senate.

“As it stands, there’s a 62 percent chance that Democrats win the lower chamber and a 57 percent probability that Republicans hold the upper chamber, according to DDHQ’s breakdown,” the newspaper said.

The forecast shows Democrats have a 65 percent chance of winning at least one chamber this fall — including a 40 percent chance that they could go on to win full control on Capitol Hill. Republicans have a 35 percent chance of retaining full control.

If predictions for a split Congress sound familiar, you probably recall Park Place CEO Mark Parkinson’s May video update on the very subject. Rewatch what Mark had to say here.

Comments or questions? Contact Patrick Connole at pconnole@parkplacelive.com.