Transcript Generated by AI 00:00 Hey, 00:00 Mark Parkinson back with Park Place and another Park View and 00:03 I want to thank Capital Funding Group for sponsoring Park Views. 00:06 And here to talk about a really fun subject, 00:09 a really fun topic, 00:10 which is the presidential race in 2028. 00:13 And you might say, 00:14 oh my God, 00:14 are we really talking about the presidential race in 2028? 00:17 And the answer is yes. 00:18 It's not too early to begin thinking about this. 00:21 The sector needs to position itself for really whatever the options are. 00:26 And so today we're going to talk about 00:28 what the options are and what it might look like 00:31 almost a little over 3 years from now 00:33 when we have the next presidential election. 00:36 I'm going to start out with the prediction that Trump isn't going to run again, 00:39 and you might say, 00:40 well, 00:40 that's a pretty obvious thing. 00:41 He can't run again. 00:43 Uh, 00:43 the Constitution doesn't allow him to run again. 00:45 There are people on the left that are freaked out that Trump is going to try to 00:49 turn this into a dictatorship and that one way or another he's going to run again. 00:53 I think that's wrong. 00:54 I don't think he's planning on running again. 00:56 I think he does that sometimes just to mess around with the left, 00:59 so he'll make comments and drop hints and all that. 01:01 I think just to drive them crazy. 01:03 I don't think he's going to do that. 01:04 I think we're going to have an 01:05 open presidential election without an incumbent president, 01:09 and that always makes it really interesting. 01:10 OK, 01:11 so what's going to happen? 01:12 First, 01:13 let's talk about the Republican side. 01:15 The Republican side, 01:16 we're 3 years out, 01:17 but it's pretty obvious already. 01:20 It's pretty obvious that barring some significant change, 01:23 Vice President Vance will be the Republican nominee. 01:27 Why do I say that? 01:28 I say that really for 3 reasons. 01:30 First, 01:30 Trump has already endorsed him. 01:32 Basically, 01:33 Trump has said 01:34 he thinks his logical replacement is Vance and maybe some role for Rubio, 01:39 basically saying he thinks Vance should be at the top of the ticket 01:42 and Rubio should be second. 01:44 It looks right now like Trump, 01:46 whatever Trump says happens in the Republican Party, 01:48 so absent him changing his mind, 01:50 which I guess could happen, 01:52 it looks like Vance is the person. 01:54 The second reason really is history. 01:56 If Vance decides to run. 01:58 It is very unusual. 02:00 It's only happened once or twice in American history 02:04 that a sitting vice president runs for president 02:06 and doesn't get the nomination of the party. 02:09 In the times that it didn't happen, 02:10 there were really very bizarre circumstances that don't apply here. 02:14 So the history would indicate that advance decides to do this, 02:17 even if a bunch of other really credible people like 02:20 Secretary of State Rubio and others run against him. 02:23 He probably has this one. 02:25 And finally, 02:25 if you look at the betting markets, 02:27 and I've talked about the betting markets in the past, 02:29 they're pretty illustrative here. 02:31 Pollymarket.com, 02:32 which lets you bet on basically anything, 02:35 has Vance as a 52% likely to be the Republican nominee. 02:39 It doesn't have anybody else 02:41 even above 10%. 02:42 I mean, 02:43 there is a massive gap in what the betting markets believe 02:46 between 02:47 Vance's chances and everybody else. 02:49 I'm pretty comfortable in saying I think the nominee is going to be Vance. 02:54 OK, 02:54 the Democratic side, 02:55 much, 02:56 much harder to figure this out. 02:58 There isn't obviously a sitting incumbent VP here. 03:02 There's just a bunch of folks that would really, 03:03 really like to be president, 03:05 and it's very hard to figure out which one will actually make it, 03:08 but I'm not sure it's really that hard. 03:12 When you look first of all at the betting markets, 03:14 the betting markets are saying that there is a very big gap 03:18 between Governor Gavin Newsom of California and everybody else. 03:22 Newsom is right now at its 32% likelihood 03:26 to be the Democratic nominee. 03:28 Nobody else is really above 10% or so. 03:32 Um, 03:32 2, 03:33 2nd on the list is AOC, 03:36 Congresswoman Cortez from New York. 03:39 She ain't going to be the nominee. 03:41 She'll run. 03:42 The left will love her. 03:43 I really seriously doubt that she will make it. 03:46 Uh, 03:46 then there's an interesting governor, 03:48 Governor Beshear from Kentucky, 03:50 who's more of a moderate to conservative type Democrat. 03:53 That right now is only getting like a 6 or 7% chance to win, 03:56 but I can tell you from in the DC circles that I run around, 04:00 there's a lot of, 04:01 a lot of buzz around Bash. 04:03 I think it will come down to Newsom. 04:06 There will be some very liberal person. 04:07 Maybe it'll be AOC. 04:09 Maybe it'll be somebody else. 04:10 I don't think they'll get the nomination, 04:12 and I think Bashir will be a serious candidate. 04:14 And based upon what we know right now, 04:16 it feels to me like Newsom will probably be the nominee. 04:20 That of course can change a lot. 04:22 Then the question is who wins between the two, 04:25 and there's really no history 04:28 to give us the answer to that. 04:30 History would suggest that it's about, 04:32 you know, 04:32 an open seat like this. 04:33 It's about 50/50 from either party. 04:36 The betting markets right now are saying it's about 50/50 04:39 for either party. 04:40 There's no logical way 04:42 to say at this point 04:43 who the next president will be. 04:45 But again, 04:46 I think in terms of 04:48 top tier folks. 04:50 We're looking at 04:51 Vice President Vance. 04:52 We're looking at Governor Newsom, 04:54 and then there will be others that will come along. 04:56 We'll continue to update 04:58 the outlook for the presidential race 05:00 probably every 6 months or so. 05:02 Then as we get closer to actual primaries and caucuses, 05:05 we'll do it more frequently than that. 05:07 It makes a massive difference 05:09 to the sector and obviously an enormous difference 05:11 to the country and to the world, 05:13 so we will continue to be on top of it. 05:16 In the meantime, 05:16 thank you for your support of Park Place and for watching this park view. 05:21 Oh my God, 05:22 if you're still watching this, 05:23 this means that you watched the end of a very long video on Park Place. 05:28 I'm not sure what that means. 05:29 It says something about you or maybe there was just nothing else to watch today or 05:34 maybe your priorities are a little bit off, 05:36 but whatever it is, 05:37 we really appreciate your support and 05:39 if you want to continue to follow us, 05:41 follow us on LinkedIn and our various social media sites. 05:44 And you know, 05:46 try to find something else to do.
