Transcript Generated by AI 00:00 Hey Mark Parkinson back with Park Place and I'm here today to do a midterm 00:05 election update. 00:07 When we did our first midterm update 6 months ago, 00:10 it looked pretty clear that the Ds would win the House and that the Rs would hold 00:16 on to the Senate. 00:18 Well, a lot has happened in the last six months, 00:21 and the outlook has changed for many people. 00:24 I still believe that the Ds will win the House, and I still believe that the Rs, 00:28 just by the nick of their teeth, will hold on to the Senate. 00:31 But it's gotten very, very close, and a lot has changed. 00:34 So let's talk a little bit about that. 00:36 What's changed? 00:37 Well, in the last six months, President Trump's popularity numbers have 00:40 come down pretty significantly. 00:42 The war has not been popular. 00:44 Gas prices are up. 00:46 Inflation generally is up, and the public is pretty cranky about it. 00:50 And when you look at the impact that that has on the election, 00:53 the impact is pretty significant. 00:55 The polling continues to show DSs in really good position in the House and 00:59 their strength actually continuing. 01:01 If you look at the betting markets, the Ds are now over 90% likely to win the 01:07 House. 01:07 It seems quite clear that that will happen. 01:10 Does it matter? 01:10 Yeah, it it matters a whole lot, the Ds win the House. 01:14 What it means is the President Trump will get basically no legislation done in the 01:18 last two years of his presidency. 01:20 There will be a ton of oversight hearings with both him and his cabinet officials. 01:26 And it also means that the administration will turn to the agencies to get things 01:31 done. 01:31 Once they realize they can't get anything done in Congress, 01:35 suddenly the agencies like HHS and CMS will become even more active and more 01:39 important for our lobbying efforts. 01:42 OK, what about the Senate? 01:44 The Senate has gotten incredibly close. 01:47 Six months ago, I told you that Republicans were likely 01:50 to hold on because they have a structural advantage. 01:52 They are currently ahead 53 to 47. 01:56 But these don't need to just win three seats, flip three seats. 01:59 They need to win four. 02:00 And that's because Vice President Vance will break break ties. 02:05 As much as the president has become unpopular, 02:08 it will be really hard for the Democrats to gain 4 seats. 02:12 Why? 02:13 Well, first of all, there are three tough seats that the 02:16 Democrats currently hold that are up for re election, 02:18 and they've got to hold those three very challenging seats. 02:22 And those include Georgia, New Hampshire, and Michigan, all really tough states. 02:28 I think the Ds will be able to hold on to each of them, but even if they do, 02:33 they then have to flip four Republican seats, 02:36 seats that are currently held by Republicans. 02:39 The four most likely would be North Carolina and Maine and then Ohio and 02:46 Alaska. 02:47 And while you can make an argument and the polling can indicate that they may be 02:52 able to flip Ohio and Alaska, that's a pretty tall order. 02:55 Basically, absolutely everything has to go right. 02:59 Does it matter? 03:00 Yeah, Again, it matters a lot. 03:02 If the Ds take the control of the Senate, they will do a ton of oversight, 03:06 but it actually has a bigger impact as it relates to the Supreme Court. 03:10 There are a couple of aging conservative Supreme Court members in Alito and in 03:14 Thomas who I think would like to retire. 03:17 The Democrats can take control of the Senate. 03:19 They won't be able to because they will not be able to be replaced by like minded 03:23 justices on the court. 03:25 When you add it all up, my prediction has not changed. 03:27 I continue to believe that these will win the House and the Republicans will hold 03:32 on to the Senate, but it's gotten much, much closer in the Senate. 03:36 Three months from now, we'll do another update. 03:38 And then as the midterms get closer, we'll have updates even more frequently 03:42 than that. 03:43 All of this matters. 03:44 Elections have major consequences and impacts on our sector and so we will 03:49 continue to follow it here on Park Place.
