Transcript Generated by AI 00:00 Hi, Mark Parkinson back with Park Place and 00:04 welcome to Parkview again. 00:06 We're sponsored by Capital Funding Group and we love that group and that all the 00:10 work they do with HUD and can't thank them enough for supporting this segment 00:15 and this website. 00:16 Today we're here to talk about what is really one of my favorite subjects, 00:21 and it's a huge demographic change that's taking place across the planet that I 00:26 think is actually the most important demographic change that's occurring and 00:30 will be the most important for the next 20 or 30 years. 00:34 And I'm willing to bet that you don't know what it is. 00:38 Now, when we think about big demographic 00:40 changes that will impact us, the first thing that comes to our mind is 00:43 the ageing of the population. 00:44 And that's certainly important, but that's not what I'm talking about 00:47 today. 00:48 We might also think about the changing dynamics and makeup of the US population. 00:53 And it is changing dramatically. 00:56 It's becoming much more diverse, But that's also not the trend that I'm 01:01 talking about. 01:02 To me, the most significant trend on the planet 01:05 and maybe ultimately in our buildings is this. 01:09 The number of young people is declining. 01:13 Let me let that sink in for a minute. 01:15 The number of young people is declining. 01:18 Now, this isn't just true in the United States, 01:21 it's true across the world. 01:23 If you look at the entire Western world, once countries become industrialized and 01:29 sometimes become prosperous, very often the birth rate will drop 01:33 dramatically. 01:34 And that has occurred all over the globe. 01:36 In Japan, for example, they're a country of 125 million people. 01:41 They are projected to go down to 95 million people. 01:46 This is disastrous for an economy. 01:48 And that is because when you don't have young people, young people, 01:52 the folks that buy all the goods and services, 01:54 they buy cars and houses and clothing and vacations and all of that, 01:58 Old people just buy more healthcare. 02:00 So as population stagnant or decline, it becomes a huge problem economically. 02:07 Unfortunately, this is also starting to happen in the 02:10 United States. 02:11 So let's look at a couple of charts and you really understand the issue, 02:15 the challenge to nursing homes, but also the opportunity. 02:20 We know that the growth of the older population is occurring. 02:24 As we sit here today, there are 14 million people in the United 02:28 States over the age of 80. 02:30 The oldest baby boomers turn 80 next year. 02:34 As a result, that number increases dramatically 5 02:37 years from now. 02:38 We go from 14 million to 18,000,000. 02:41 Five years after that will be a 23 million. 02:44 Five years after that will be a 27,000, 000, 02:47 almost a doubling of the population of older people. 02:51 Unfortunately, the number of younger people is declining. 02:55 This is a graph that shows the rate of population growth in the United States 03:00 since the year 1900. 03:02 And what it shows is that in every year since 1900, we've had population growth. 03:09 But if you look at it, you can see that the rate of growth 03:12 declines dramatically. 03:14 In fact, during the first year of COVID, for the first year, 03:17 we almost had negative population growth. 03:20 You can see that clearly starting at about 1950, population growth declined. 03:26 Now, why did it decline in the United States? 03:28 It declined because of a dramatic drop in our birth rate. 03:32 Our birth rate went from over three people per woman to less than two. 03:38 Now, as I sit here and tape this today, I'm outside of Lakewood and I will tell 03:42 you the Orthodox did not get the message. 03:44 There are kids everywhere and the birth rate among the Orthodox is actually 03:47 continues to be quite high. 03:49 But nationwide, the birth rate is dropping dramatically 03:52 and as a result, the number of younger people is declining. 03:57 Why does this matter to you? 03:59 It matters to you because the people that work in our buildings are young. 04:04 People that we take care of are old. 04:06 We're going to have a ton of people to take care of. 04:08 That's what the chart shows. 04:10 But unfortunately, we're not going to have enough young 04:12 people to do it. 04:13 I asked the folks at the American Healthcare Association to do a simple 04:18 mathematic equation, and that was to figure out the number of 04:23 people between the ages of 18 and 45 for every person that's over 80. 04:28 And you can see that last year there were nine people between the ages of 18 and 45 04:34 for every person over 80. 04:36 But very quickly that drops to 8 and then seven, 04:40 and then the even less than four people between 18 and 45 for every person over 04:45 80 already in countries that are ahead of us in this phenomena, like Japan, 04:51 they're having a very hard time finding workers. 04:55 So what does all this mean? 04:57 Well, it means two things to me. 04:58 First, the policy makers have to wake up. 05:01 We need to change our immigration laws so that lawful people, 05:04 people that don't want to commit crimes, but nurses from the Philippines and 05:09 Mexico and other parts of the world that want to come here can come here to work. 05:13 It's really the only way we're going to be able to solve this. 05:17 But the second message is a message to us. 05:20 In order for providers to succeed in the future, 05:23 they have to be world class employers. 05:26 The available workforce pool will be so small that if you're not fantastic at 05:30 employee engagement and satisfaction, if you're not regularly measuring 05:35 employee satisfaction and working on areas where you're weak, 05:38 if you're not constantly recognizing and rewarding your employees, 05:42 you just aren't going to make it. 05:44 Now, it is possible to do this. 05:46 We know from our work out there that the average turnover rate in a nursing home 05:52 among staff is 56%. 05:54 But there are some providers that don't know what they're doing. 05:56 They're not focused on it. 05:57 Their turnover rate is over 100%. 06:00 And there are others whose turnover rate is less than 25%. 06:04 If you can become one of those employers with a turnover rate of only 25 or 30%, 06:09 you're not just going to survive in the future, 06:12 you're going to crush it because your competition isn't going to be able to 06:17 find workers. 06:18 Only the very best employers will be able to do that. 06:21 So there is a very big thing happening out there in the world and that is at the 06:26 number of younger people is declining. 06:28 It's going to impact us and we really need to prepare for it. 06:33 So let me again thank Capital Funding Group for sponsoring this segment and 06:36 thank you for watching Park Place.
