Transcript Generated by AI 00:00 Hey, 00:00 Mark Parkinson back with Park Place, 00:02 and we're here with the Park View, 00:04 which is sponsored by Capital Funding Group, 00:06 and you might be a little bit surprised about the topic. 00:09 The topic is the 2026 midterm congressional election, 00:13 and you might say, 00:13 oh my God, 00:14 do we already have to start thinking about the 2026 elections? 00:17 Didn't we just have an election? 00:18 And the answer is, 00:19 yeah, 00:19 we gotta think about it. 00:20 These election results matter massively 00:23 to the sector. 00:24 No matter what your politics are, 00:26 the politics for the sector are pretty clear. 00:29 I mean, 00:29 I'm gonna make some broad generalizations, 00:31 but they're basically true, 00:33 and that is that 00:34 by and large, 00:36 Republicans are really, 00:37 really good for us on the regulatory side. 00:40 But 00:40 I'll put this politically, 00:41 they can be challenging on the Medicaid side. 00:44 Sometimes we have challenges on the Medicaid side with Republicans. 00:47 Now that's not true across the whole country. 00:49 There are some very red states 00:50 that have some great Medicaid rates, 00:52 but at the federal level, 00:54 sometimes Republicans can be a little tough on Medicaid. 00:57 Democrats are usually pretty good on funding. 01:00 Uh, 01:00 they're good at passing bills that spend money. 01:03 But they are pretty darn bad on the regulatory side. 01:06 So what the deal is with the sector is that at the federal level 01:11 we're really probably better off with divided government. 01:14 When one party has the House, 01:16 the Senate, 01:17 and the presidency, 01:18 it can create some real problems. 01:20 On the regulatory side, 01:21 we've certainly seen that with the Democrats, 01:24 uh, 01:24 during the first two years of the 01:25 Biden administration when these had the presidency, 01:28 the House and the Senate. 01:29 That's when we got the staffing mandate and a 01:31 whole bunch of other regs that were really, 01:33 really hard to deal with. 01:35 Then to start out this term in 2025 when the Republicans have the presidency, 01:40 the House and the Senate, 01:41 where they have it all, 01:42 we've had a massive Medicaid battle. 01:44 Now we won the Medicaid battle. 01:46 We were excluded from the Medicaid cuts, 01:49 but 01:50 again, 01:50 when one party has everything, 01:52 there are challenges out there. 01:53 So 01:54 2026, 01:55 what happens? 01:55 There is not a presidential election. 01:57 President Trump is there. 01:59 Until 2028, 02:00 but there is a massive election in the US House and in the US Senate. 02:05 In the US House, 02:06 all 435 members are up for reelection. 02:10 In the Senate, 02:11 one third of the Senate is up. 02:14 So 02:14 where do we stand and what's going to happen 02:16 in the House right now, 02:17 the Republicans have a very thin majority. 02:21 They only control the House by 7 votes. 02:25 What that means is they can only lose 4 votes before they lose votes to the Democrats. 02:30 If 4 of their 7 vote margin switches, 02:33 they lose by 1. 02:35 The upcoming midterm elections will very likely result in 02:39 the Ds taking back control of the House. 02:41 Why do I say that? 02:43 I say that for two reasons. 02:44 The first is historical. 02:46 Historically, 02:47 in the midterm of a presidential term, 02:50 the party that's not in power gains 26 seats. 02:55 That's a pretty big number. 02:56 Keep in mind the Ds only have to gain 02:58 4 seats in order to take back control. 03:01 So first is historical. 03:03 The second thing, 03:04 and it might surprise you that I rely on this, 03:06 the second thing are the betting markets. 03:09 You can now bet on anything that you can possibly imagine, 03:13 and there are multiple betting markets that allow you to bet on political outcomes. 03:17 You might say, 03:17 Well, 03:17 what would bettors know about politics? 03:19 And the answer is a lot. 03:21 There are literally millions of dollars that are bet on these sites, 03:25 and they have become a very good predictor of what's going to happen in the future. 03:30 The biggest is a site called Polymarket.com, 03:33 Polymarket.com, 03:35 and if you're interested, 03:35 I would encourage you to go there because you 03:37 can literally bet on anything on this site. 03:40 This morning, 03:41 for example, 03:41 you could bet on whether or not Taylor Swift will 03:44 will become pregnant in 2025. 03:46 I mean, 03:47 you can literally bet on anything. 03:49 You can also bet on who will control the House in 2026, 03:53 and right now, 03:53 Polly Market is saying that there's a 65% chance 03:57 that the Democrats will win control. 03:59 When you look at a combination of history and the betting markets, 04:02 I feel pretty confident in saying 04:04 the Ds will take back control in 2026. 04:07 The one thing that could change this would be if Trump was extraordinarily popular 04:13 at the time of the election in November of 2026. 04:15 If that occurs, 04:16 that typically works really well 04:18 for the president's party 04:20 and could allow him to kind of buck these historical patterns. 04:23 But absent that, 04:25 I think these take over in 2026 in the House. 04:29 In the Senate, 04:30 there's also a pretty close 04:32 majority right now. 04:33 The Republicans have the majority 04:35 53 to 47. 04:37 What does history say? 04:39 History says that the party not in power typically gains 4 seats in a midterm, 04:44 and if the Democrats gain 4 seats, 04:46 they take over. 04:48 If they only grow 3 seats though, 04:50 they don't. 04:51 If 3 seats would make it a 50/50 tie. 04:53 The Vice President JD Vance would break the tie, 04:56 and Republicans would have control. 04:58 History would indicate that this is a very close call. 05:01 What do the betting markets say? 05:02 The betting markets say 75% chance that the Republicans keep control. 05:08 Why is that the case? 05:09 It's the case because even though the Republicans 05:12 are defending more seats than the Democrats, 05:14 they're defending like 20 to 22 seats. 05:18 The 05:20 Strength of the states that they are defending in are very strongly Republican. 05:24 It would be very tough for the D's to beat them in these seats. 05:28 So when you look at a combination of history, 05:30 the betting markets, 05:30 and the seats that are up, 05:32 I feel pretty confident in telling you that it 05:34 is quite likely that Republicans will retain control. 05:38 Poly market again is saying like 75% chance that Republicans retain control. 05:43 You add it all up and where do we sit at the end of 2026, 05:47 the likely place that we end up is divided government. 05:50 These having the House, 05:52 our's having the Senate. 05:54 It might be, 05:54 you know, 05:55 very challenging for the country, 05:57 but for the sector, 05:58 typically that divided control 06:00 is really the best. 06:02 We'll continue to follow this. 06:03 We'll do a quarterly update on how the election results outcome looks 06:08 coming up to the November 2026 election, 06:10 and then as we get later into 2026. 06:13 We'll update it on even a more frequent basis. 06:16 It matters to us a lot. 06:18 It matters to your operation a lot and so we will be on top of it. 06:22 In the meantime, 06:23 thank you very much for your support of Park 06:25 Place and thank you for watching this Park view. 06:29 Oh my God, 06:29 if you're still watching this, 06:30 this means that you watched the end of a very long video on Park Place. 06:35 I'm not sure what that means. 06:36 It says something about you or maybe there was just nothing else to watch today or 06:41 maybe your priorities are a little bit off, 06:43 but whatever it is, 06:44 we really appreciate your support and 06:47 if you want to continue to follow us, 06:48 follow us on LinkedIn and our various social media sites. 06:52 And you know, 06:53 try to find something else to do.
